Are retail investors back? Coinbase surged to 126th place in the App Store rankings, but the overheating indicators may have already lost their accuracy.

As Bitcoin sets a new historical high, the App Store ranking of the Crypto Assets exchange Coinbase is rapidly climbing, sparking market discussions about whether retail investors have returned. This phenomenon has always been a key signal in previous bull runs, but the current market environment is vastly different, and it remains to be seen whether Coinbase can still serve as a barometer for retail investors entering the market and overheating.

Coinbase surges onto the list, familiar scenes of a bull run reappear.

According to data from The Block, Coinbase's ranking in the US Apple App Store has risen by over 70% since mid-June, climbing from 436th to 126th, reflecting a surge in user downloads that coincides with a rebound in the Crypto Assets market.

Looking back at historical data, when Coinbase enters the top 100, it is usually accompanied by Bitcoin's phase price peaks, which are also signs of an overheated market; if the ranking drops out of the top 400, it is mostly in a bear market phase.

This recent surge in rankings coincides with Bitcoin continuously breaking historical highs, hovering around $120,000. Some believe it marks the beginning of a new bullish cycle, while others see it as a sign of retail investor funds returning to the market, revealing a potential top.

( Bitcoin hits a new high, silently breaking through 123K: Is it a starting line preparation or a top emerging? )

Are retail investors really back? Youtube and Google data contradict this.

Although the rise in the App Store rankings is exciting, industry insiders remain skeptical about whether retail investors are truly returning. André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, pointed out that despite Bitcoin reaching new highs, the Google search interest for "Bitcoin" is still at a low point, which is worlds apart from the frenzy of retail investors in 2021.

Trader Elisa also cited Google Trends data indicating that the search volume for "crypto" is significantly lower than the peak of the previous bull run, showing that public interest has not yet truly warmed up.

The viewership and subscription data related to Crypto Assets on YouTube also shows stability, making it clear that the interest of retail investors has not increased.

The market has transformed, and the overheating indicators may lose accuracy.

This bull run is clearly different from the past, from Bitcoin leading the way, Ethereum teetering on the edge, to the waiting for the altcoin season. The following will clarify what changes have occurred in this market cycle.

Crypto Assets ETF Reshapes Market Participation Model

First of all, a key difference in this bull run is the birth of the spot ETF. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, it has attracted over $53 billion in capital inflows, and the Ethereum spot ETF that went live in July has also quickly accumulated $6.4 billion.

Investors can now access Crypto Assets through traditional brokerages, no longer needing to download the Coinbase or other Crypto Assets exchange apps, significantly changing the way retail investors participate.

In other words, Coinbase's download numbers may no longer fully reflect the actual market participation, and its role as a retail investor momentum indicator is facing severe challenges.

Tokenized stocks and cryptocurrency reserve companies become a new hotspot for retail investors.

From Robinhood issuing tokenized stocks through its own L2, to the skyrocketing stock prices of BTC/ETH reserve companies led by MetaPlanet and SharpLink, and Circle's IPO leading the trend of stablecoin discussions, American retail investors seem no longer in need of pursuing the high risks and high rewards of Crypto Assets. Instead, they can participate indirectly in the speculation of crypto topics from the regulated traditional financial market, while also obtaining decent returns.

(Arthur Hayes: Forget CRCL, buy JPMorgan! Stablecoins will drive bank stocks up 184%)

Coinbase is still a benchmark, but no longer the only one.

However, the ranking of the Coinbase app still holds symbolic significance. Yet, in today's market where multiple platforms like Robinhood and Binance.US are competing, the distribution of users in the Crypto Assets world has become more fragmented, and the indicative significance of a single platform is gradually weakening.

Moreover, the FOMO trend among retail investors in the market cycle may now appear in the form of ETFs, brokerage stocks, or bank stocks, and the performance of the app may have already become ineffective. As the crypto market enters an era of diversification and integration, investors who interpret the market solely through a single indicator or outdated thinking are likely to miss out on the real行情.

Is this article about retail investors coming back? Coinbase surged to 126th place in the App Store rankings, but the overheating indicators may have already lost their accuracy. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.