Analysis of Bitcoin Price Trends in Q2 2025
Introduction
The concept of Bitcoin was first proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. It is a decentralized digital currency based on a P2P network. It does not rely on specific institutions to issue it, but confirms transactions through algorithms and distributed databases to ensure the security of currency circulation. Its decentralized nature and algorithmic design prevent human manipulation, making it a unique investment asset. The following is a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s price trend, exploring issues such as recent price weakness, influencing factors, and whether the four-year bull-bear cycle has been broken.
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Bitcoin price weakness: Behind the market turmoil in 2025
BTC reached an all-time high of $109,241 in early 2025, but then fell 18% and 3.5% in February and March, respectively, to close at around $81,790 at the end of March. As of the date of writing, the crypto market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, and Bitcoin rebounded to the $83,000-84,000 range boosted by US stocks, showing slight signs of recovery.
Meanwhile, Ethereum returned to above $1,800. After a 32% plunge in February, it fell another 18% in March. The price performance of the currency was disappointing and the market sentiment was very negative.
However, with the general market decline, Bitcoin’s market dominance has steadily climbed to 61.4%, showing that the continued injection of external funds, including spot ETFs, in this round of bull market does not seem to have spilled over to altcoins.
Key factors affecting Bitcoin price trends: from macroeconomics to investor confidence
Bitcoin’s continuous decline at the end of the first quarter of 2025 may be affected by a variety of factors:
Macroeconomic environment: The reciprocal tariff policy proposed by US President Trump has triggered a rise in market risk aversion, causing US stocks to open lower in early trading. As a risky asset, Bitcoin is difficult to remain immune. The core PCE price index rose 2.79% year-on-year in February, higher than expected, triggering market risk aversion.
Investor confidence: The weakness of the altcoin market also dragged down Bitcoin prices. Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, fell as much as 18% in March, far exceeding Bitcoin’s 3.5%. This performance difference reflects investors’ cautious attitude towards high-risk assets, which in turn affects the confidence of the entire cryptocurrency eco. Reflected in the data, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs reached US$956 million in March.
Altcoin market: There were signs in February that funds may flow from Bitcoin to altcoins. Some analysts predict that early 2025 will be an altcoin season, which may divert Bitcoin investment.
Bitcoin’s four-year bull-bear cycle law: Thinking about whether it will be broken or not
Bitcoin’s four-year bull-bear cycle is usually associated with halving events, with the most recent halving on April 19, 2024. Historical data shows that halvings are usually followed by a bull market:
After the 2012 halving, the price rose from $10 to $1,000 at the end of 2013.
After the 2016 halving, the price rose from $650 to $19,000 at the end of 2017.
After the 2020 halving, the price rose from $8,000 to $69,000 at the end of 2021. Despite the decline in early 2025, the current price is still above the pre-halving price of $70,000, indicating that the bull market may still be continuing and the recent decline may be a normal adjustment.
Some analysts now believe that the traditional four-year cycle may have expired or is being replaced by a longer cycle. For example, there is a view that Bitcoin is following a “16-year historical cycle”, similar to the development path of the Internet bubble - that is, it peaked in the first half of the cycle and then entered a multi-year decline. According to this theory, Bitcoin may peak at the end of 2024 and continue to fall to a new low in 2026. This shows that the traditional four-year cycle may not fully explain Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
In addition, the maturity of the market is also considered a key variable. PlanB once said that the current bear market is not a typical bear market, and Bitcoin may break the four-year cycle, and predicted that the price may rise to $160,000 this year. This view suggests that as the market becomes more mature, cyclical fluctuations may end early or become more complex.
But overall, Bitcoin’s four-year bull-bear cycle does not seem to have failed so far, but its manifestation may be changing. On the one hand, the halving event is still an important factor affecting the market; on the other hand, market maturity, macroeconomic environment, and the potential role of longer cycles (such as the 16-year cycle theory) may interfere with the traditional cycle. Therefore, the future price trend of Bitcoin may show a more complex pattern, which contains both cyclical characteristics and is affected by multiple external factors.
Bitcoin’s future price trend: Has it reached a staged low?
It is not difficult to find that the “Black Friday” at the end of the first quarter (last Friday, March 27) and the weekend crash of the crypto market show that the market is still highly sensitive to policy uncertainty and macroeconomic pressure. If these risk factors fail to ease in the second quarter, Bitcoin may continue to be under pressure.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin’s decline in the first quarter may have approached an important support level. If it can stabilize around $70,000, it is expected to gradually rebound in the second quarter. For example, some analysts pointed out that the average daily selling pressure on mainstream trading platforms has dropped sharply from 81,000 to 29,000, and the market has entered a stage of asymmetric demand. After breaking through the $100,000 mark, it has successfully digested multiple rounds of profit-taking. At present, the seller’s power is exhausted, and the buyer is calm about the current price, which lays the groundwork for a structural supply shortage. A consolidation range may be formed in April and May, becoming the “calm before the storm” before the next round of outbreaks.
For example, in its latest report, Fidelity Digital Assets questioned the view that “Bitcoin has reached its peak in the cycle” and believed that Bitcoin may be on the eve of the next “acceleration phase”. Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out that the typical characteristics of Bitcoin’s acceleration phase are “high volatility and high returns”, similar to the market performance when BTC broke through $20,000 in December 2020. Although Bitcoin’s return rate so far this year is -11.44%, a retracement of nearly 25% from its historical high, Wainwright believes that the recent performance is consistent with the average retracement after the acceleration phase in previous cycles.
Historical data shows that the acceleration phases in 2010-2011, 2015 and 2017 peaked on the 244th day, 261st day and 280th day respectively, and the duration of the cycle was extended from round to round. However, historically, there are usually two main upswings in the acceleration phase, and this round appeared for the first time after the election. If it can break through the previous high again, the starting point of the second main upswing may be around $110,000.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin market is undergoing profound changes. Although the traditional four-year cycle may be broken, this does not mean that the Bitcoin market has lost its cyclicality. On the contrary, we may be witnessing the formation of a new market pattern. In this new pattern, Bitcoin price movements may show more complex patterns, and the length and amplitude of the cycle may change.
For investors, this change means that a more flexible investment strategy is needed. It is no longer possible to simply rely on historical cycles, but it is necessary to comprehensively consider various influencing factors, including the macroeconomic environment, regulatory policies, and technological development.
Risk warning: Increased market volatility may lead to a sharp drop in prices, and investors need to carefully assess their risk tolerance.
