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On May 6, 2025, the global <a href="/ja/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">cryptocurrency market</a>'s attention is still focused on <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a>. Its price hovers around $94,000, just a step away from the historical high of breaking through $100,000 for the first time on December 5, 2024.

The journey of Bitcoin has never been smooth sailing. Now, at this point, the market can't help but ask: Can Bitcoin return to $100,000? What kind of chapter will its future write?

## The cornerstone of a bull market: trend and momentum

Bitcoin's performance in 2024 is spectacular. From the low point at the beginning of the year to breaking ten thousand US dollars by the end of the year, the price has more than doubled, driven by multiple factors. Firstly, the change in the policy environment has injected a strong stimulus into the market. After the November 2024 US election, the newly elected government expressed clear support for cryptocurrencies and proposed the idea of establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. This signal ignited investors' enthusiasm, pushing Bitcoin rapidly from $68,000 to over $100,000. The favorable policies not only boost market confidence but also attract more institutional funds into the market.

Secondly, Bitcoin's supply mechanism further consolidates its scarcity. The fourth halving in April 2024 will reduce the new block reward from 6.25 coins to 3.125 coins, meaning the influx of new Bitcoins will slow down even further. With a hard cap of 21 million coins in total supply, the halving effect has always been a crucial catalyst for bull markets. Historical data shows that after the first three halvings, Bitcoin hit new highs within 12 to 18 months. The breakthrough in 2024 seems to be following this pattern.

Institutional investment continues to provide solid support for prices. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become the main channel for fund inflows, with products like BlackRock's IBIT standing out. By the end of 2024, ETF holdings accounted for 2.38% of the total Bitcoin supply, a proportion that is steadily increasing.

The authoritative institution's forecast further strengthens the optimistic sentiment. Bitwise, Standard Chartered Bank, and VanEck expect 2025 [Bitcoin price](/price/bitcoin-btc) It may reach $180,000 to $200,000, while Bernstein is even more bold, predicting a year-end price of $200,000. These forecasts are not groundless but are based on institutional fund inflows, supply scarcity, and the increasing popularity of Bitcoin as a store of value asset.

## Hidden Risks: Volatility and Uncertainty

Despite the strong momentum of the bull market, the high volatility of the Bitcoin market cannot be ignored. After breaking through $100,000 in December 2024, the price experienced a sharp retracement to $76,144 in a short period, showing pressure to take profits. Technical analysis further reveals potential risks: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering the overbought zone, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at a high level, these signals all suggest a possible adjustment in the short term. Historically, Bitcoin often experiences a 20% to 40% retracement in bull markets, the current high-level operation undoubtedly casts a layer of uncertainty over the market.

External factors may also cause disruptions [Price trend](/price-prediction) Despite the pro-crypto stance of the US government providing support to the market, there remains uncertainty in the regulatory environment. If major economies implement restrictive policies, market sentiment may quickly reverse. In addition, changes in the macroeconomic environment also need to be closely monitored.

The behavior of large holders is another key variable. Institutions or individual investors, known as 'whales,' hold a large amount of Bitcoin, and their selling may trigger a chain reaction. For example, the dynamic of institutions such as MicroStrategy is closely watched, and changes in their holdings may have a significant impact on the market.

## The possibility and path to return to $100,000

Considering the current trends and risks, what is the possibility of Bitcoin returning to $100,000? From a technical perspective, the bullish trend of Bitcoin remains strong, with short-term and long-term moving averages both above the key support level of $90,000. As long as this support is not effectively broken, there is still room for the price to break through upwards.

From a fundamental perspective, the continuous inflow of institutional funds, the long-term impact of the halving effect, and the potential continuation of policy support all provide a solid foundation for the price to return to $100,000. In the medium to long term, Bitcoin is not only expected to return to $100,000 within 2025, but may even challenge the high points of $125,000 to $200,000.

However, short-term volatility is inevitable. The market may experience fluctuations due to technical pullbacks or external events, and investors need to remain vigilant. Keeping a close eye on the latest developments in US cryptocurrency policies, ETF fund flows, and key technical indicators (such as RSI and the $90,000 support level) will help grasp the market pulse. For those intending to invest, a strategy of diversified investment and phased position building may effectively mitigate short-term risks.

## Conclusion: The Interweaving of Faith and Reason

The story of Bitcoin, from its birth of a few cents to nearly $100,000 today, is an epic about technology, faith, and the market. Crossing the threshold of $100,000 once, it may soon cross it again, or even head towards a more distant horizon. However, every step in the market is accompanied by a game of risk and opportunity. In the current coexistence of optimistic predictions and uncertainty, the future of Bitcoin is both inspiring and requires a calm approach.

For everyone who pays attention to Bitcoin, this is not just a journey of prices, but also a test of patience and wisdom. Whether you are an investor or a bystander, maintaining awe for the market, rationally facing each wave, may be the best posture to embrace the future.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on existing information, and the cryptocurrency market is highly risky, [Price prediction](/price-prediction) Not absolutely accurate, investment requires caution.)

<div class="blog-details-info">
 <div>Author: Rooick Z., Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">*This article represents only the author&#39;s point of view and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment involves risks, so decisions should be made cautiously.
 <div>*This article is original, and the copyright belongs to Gate.io. Please indicate the author and source if you need to reprint, otherwise legal responsibilities will be pursued.
</div><p></p>
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Can Bitcoin Return to $100,000?