HBAR pump loses momentum, historical pullback zone may signal further fall | Hedera price prediction

Despite HBAR's increase of 58.77% this month, its recent performance has been poor, with a fall of over 8% in the past 24 hours, erasing all weekly gains. This cooling phenomenon may not just be a short-term adjustment; considering the past price movement, short-term chart signals, and key support areas, HBAR may face deeper downward pressure.

Historical pullbacks suggest familiar profit-taking zones

Why is it important to pay attention to the pullback now? Because Hedera has entered a range that historically tends to start profit-taking. In March 2025, when HBAR rose to $0.26, the pullback from the historical peak was about 53.74%. Following this, there was a 47% crash, causing it to drop to $0.14 within a month.

By July 22, the pullback was 52%, and at that time the HBAR price was close to $0.27. Since then, the pullback has started, which means traders may choose to take profits again in the 50-60% pullback range.

Even though this pullback is similar to March, the magnitude is lighter (benefiting from the narrative of the altcoin season), a 40% drop from $0.27 would push the price of HBAR down to $0.16. This price level coincides precisely with a key support level, which will be analyzed in detail later.

In short, the historical pullback range is where traders usually start to take profits, and this pattern seems to be repeating.

Death cross may accelerate HBAR price fall

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, we see another bearish signal. The 20-period EMA (red line) is about to cross the 50-period EMA (orange line), a classic bearish crossover known as a "death cross." Although the crossover has not yet formed, this structure is almost complete.

We choose to use the 4-hour chart because it often captures changes in trends before the daily chart. This early signal indicates that market momentum is shifting towards the bears.

Further supporting this view is the Bull Bear Power Index, which has just turned negative, indicating that sellers are beginning to dominate; if the bulls fail to intervene, the price decline may accelerate. If a death cross is confirmed and the bears take full control, more momentum-driven selling is expected to push prices further down, especially since history has laid the groundwork for this.

HBAR key support level: $0.21

The current HBAR price is approximately $0.23, close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is $0.23. The Fibonacci retracement line drawn from the recent low of $0.12 to the high of $0.29 shows that if $0.23 is broken, the next support may be at $0.212 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). After that, $0.19 and $0.16 will become key support levels, with $0.16 being the 40% retracement level from the recent high.

However, if HBAR successfully breaks through the $0.25 support level (which has now turned into a resistance level), and the death cross does not occur, then the bearish assumption may be invalid.

Conclusion

The recent signs of a pullback in HBAR price, combined with historical pullback patterns and technical signals, indicate that it may face greater downward pressure. Investors should pay attention to whether the support level of $0.23 can be maintained; if it fails, the next key support level will determine whether the price can avoid a deeper pullback.