Bitcoin first breaks through 110,000 USD: a structural market driven by macro policies and funds

Market Review: The $110,000 level has been strongly broken through, and the market has entered a phase dominated by "institutional trading."

On the morning of May 22, Beijing time, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $110,000 mark, reaching a record high of $110,830. Since the beginning of May, Bitcoin has risen by more than 13%. From the perspective of K-line pattern, BTC has completed two rounds of volume breakouts in the past 10 trading days, and continued to attack along the 5-day EMA, forming a typical bullish arrangement structure, showing strong upward momentum.

Technical Analysis: K-line Structure and Indicator Resonance, Short-term Still Has Upside Momentum

1. K-line pattern: After forming a flag consolidation, it breaks out, targeting the 115000 area.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC formed a standard flag-shaped consolidation structure, and confirmed a breakout on the evening of May 21, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. The integer mark of $110,000 did not encounter significant selling pressure during the first test, but the volume was well matched, indicating that the bulls were more confident.

2. Moving Average System: Bullish alignment fully established, MA10 > MA30 > MA60

Currently, all short- and medium-term moving averages of BTC show a standard "pyramid bullish arrangement", especially the MA10 and MA30, which form a significant "accelerated divergence" angle, confirming the continuity of the trend.

MA200 ($106,831) serves as the bull-bear dividing line, far from the current price, and has not been tested for several consecutive days, indicating that the market is in a "strong trend" environment.

3. Technical Indicators:

MACD: DIF (559.3) and DEA (496.1) continue to rise, the histogram turns green again, and momentum is recovering;

RSI: The RSI(12) is 69.7, which is on the edge of overbought, but has not entered the extreme area, and there is still room for upside;

KDJ: The J value has retreated from a high position but has not formed a death cross, indicating an increased possibility of short-term oscillation and consolidation.

OBV: The OBV line has broken through its historical high, indicating significant capital inflow, with good volume support.

Volume Profile (VPR): $109,000–$107,000 is the core support zone where a large amount of chips are concentrated, providing strong short-term support.

Large capital movement: Continuous net inflow from main players, on-chain wallet activity surges.

1. On-chain data: According to data from Lookonchain and Arkham, since May 20, multiple whale wallets have successively transferred/withdrawn BTC assets to the exchange, with a total amount of more than 13,000 BTC. The number of active addresses and non-zero balance wallets on the chain has reached a record high, indicating that retail investors and institutions are active in both directions.

2. ETF inflows: According to SoSoValue statistics, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds in a single day on May 21 was about $120 million, recording a positive inflow for the seventh consecutive trading day. The surge in subscription demand for ETFs under BlackRock (iShares) and Fidelity (Fidelity) shows that the acceptance of BTC by traditional funds continues to increase.

Macroeconomic Policy and Market Structure

1. Legislation on stablecoins is advancing, and the pressure from U.S. debt may be partially absorbed by USDT and others.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Congress is speeding up its review of the "Stablecoin Regulatory Framework", which allows issuers to expand the size of issuance in the form of U.S. bond pledges. At present, Tether has become one of the top 10 holders of short-term Treasury bonds, and once the bill is passed, it means that crypto assets such as BTC will become an external source of power for the "U.S. bond support mechanism".

The rise of BTC will not only be an issue for the cryptocurrency market itself, but will become part of a solution for the U.S. Treasury.

The current market has shifted from a retail-driven speculative trend to an institutional-driven structural trend. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has already surpassed the levels seen at the beginning of the bull market in 2021, while on-chain data shows a trend of chips "returning to large holders."

The market has entered the mid-stage of a major uptrend, and it is highly likely that a trend of "buying on dips" will emerge in the coming months.

Risk Warning: High-level fluctuations and short-term pullbacks should not be ignored.

Although the overall trend is upward, due to the recent continuous short-term gains, it is necessary to guard against the following two types of risks:

After the RSI enters the overbought range, a technical pullback occurs at the 30-minute and 1-hour levels.

On-chain data and the leverage ratio in the derivatives market are rising simultaneously, leading to a short-term liquidation risk.

Macroeconomic variables (such as the fluctuating attitude of the Federal Reserve and the stalled legislation on stablecoins) may also trigger drastic volatility.

Therefore, for short to medium-term traders, it is particularly crucial to pay attention to whether the support at 109,000 dollars can hold.

Conclusion: BTC is becoming part of the structural solution for the U.S. financial system.

The Bitcoin surge in 2025 is no longer merely driven by speculative hot money in the market, but has become an important supporting tool for the US financial system to solve internal structural issues, driven by the logic of the "stablecoin-Treasury bond closed loop."

This also means that the future upper limit of Bitcoin prices will no longer be determined solely by market sentiment, but will be deeply tied to the scale of U.S. debt, the credibility of the U.S. dollar, and political maneuvering.

In the next six months, BTC is very likely to open a new price discovery window.

This article only represents the personal views of the author and does not represent the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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