The first day of Powell's congressional hearing saw a “big turnaround”: not ruling out an early rate cut, but the economic data for June and July is more important.

Powell said that the Federal Reserve (FED) has not cut interest rates so far due to the prospect of rising inflation, and tariffs have brought uncertainty. This article is based on an article by Wall Street Insight by Li Dan and was compiled, compiled and written by Foresight News. (Synopsis: The Federal Reserve (FED) soundpiece: Trump presses two Fed officials to support interest rate cuts, Ball becomes the biggest loser) (Background added: Win Trump's favor for Bauer? The Federal Reserve Board of Governors Waller: Fed cuts interest rates as early as July, tariff shock is short-lived) On the first day of a "special" congressional hearing on The Federal Reserve (FED) coin policy, The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell did not comment on the possibility of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting in July. Reiterating the need to see more information on how high tariffs will affect inflation, he pointed out that the Fed has suspended interest rate cuts so far because tariffs are expected to push inflation, but he does not rule out that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be as large as expected, and does not rule out the possibility of early interest rate cuts. On Tuesday, June 24, Eastern time, during the Q&A session of the House Financial Service Committee hearing, some lawmakers asked about the possibility of a July rate cut mentioned by The Federal Reserve Board of Governors last Friday, and Powell said that "many paths are possible." He said inflation could not be seen as strong as expected, and that falling under inflation and a weak labor market could mean an early rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED). Powell later said the data suggested that tariffs on at least some industries would hit U.S. consumers. In the June and July data, he said, "we think we should start to see" the impact of tariffs on inflation. "If not, we will learn from it." Powell said The Federal Reserve (FED) is "completely open" to the view that "tariffs will have a lower (inflationary) impact." If the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is lower than the Fed expects, it will have a material impact on the Fed's coin policy. Powell has since reiterated that he expects tariffs to have a significant impact on prices during June, July and August. If you don't see the impact, that's a lesson. "We can only know if we see it with our own eyes, but I think we will learn as we go." U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall at the end of the morning session after Powell mentioned the possibility of an early rate cut and hinted that a weaker-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation would push for a rate cut. The Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.30% at midday and the yield on the Intrerest Rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note fell below 3.81%, both regrouping their lows for more than a month after Powell's hearings. The commentary believes that at this hearing, Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and more importantly, did not rule out that inflation may weaken. A rate cut in July is not ruled out, but it may wait until at least September Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as "The Federal Reserve (FED) News Agency of the New United States", pointed out that Powell's hearing told lawmakers that if it were not for the fear that raising tariffs could undermine the efforts of The Federal Reserve (FED) to fight inflation for many years, recent economic data is likely to justify continuing to cut interest rates. Powell believes that brokerage activity is sound, so Fed officials can carefully study the data to determine whether to restart rate cuts. The article reads: "Powell did not explicitly rule out a rate cut next month (July), but did not disclose specific details. But in response to questions from lawmakers, he hinted that (Fed) officials were more likely to wait at least until the September meeting to see if the tariff-driven price rise was lower than expected before resuming rate cuts." The article paraphrased Powell: "If it turns out that inflationary pressures are indeed under control, we will cut interest rates sooner, not later, but I don't want to point to a particular meeting ... I don't think we need to rush too much because the economy is still strong." No interest rate cut is due to the uncertainty caused by the forecast of inflation and tariffs this year At the hearing, some lawmakers asked about the forecast changes of the FOMC members of the US The Federal Reserve (FED) Cargo Coin Policy Committee since March this year. Powell said the change in their inflation expectations was mainly due to tariffs. Powell said the vast majority of FOMC members believe a rate cut later this year would be appropriate, but noted that the economic direction is "very uncertain." Some lawmakers referred to the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs and asked The Federal Reserve (FED) officials if they were hypothetical. Powell said they tried to make their assumptions public in their speeches but would not comment on policy. Even if it is not explicitly stated in the quarterly updated economic outlook, officials have explored their assumptions in their speeches. Some lawmakers have asked why The Federal Reserve (FED) in the United States cannot cut interest rates like Central Bank in other countries. Powell replied that all professional forecasters except The Federal Reserve (FED) expect inflation in the United States to rise this year, which is why the Fed has not yet acted. Since then, some lawmakers have criticized The Federal Reserve (FED) for raising interest rates too late during Biden's presidency and too late after Trump took office. In this regard, Powell directly attributed the Fed's failure to cut interest rates so far to the uncertainty caused by tariffs. Powell has since mentioned that uncertainty is part of the reason why The Federal Reserve (FED) has held off rate cuts. Uncertainty eased after peaking in April. Now, he said, the business world "feels more positive." In advance testimony released before the hearing, Powell noted that short-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, tariffs are a key driver, and most measures of long-term inflation expectations remain in line with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The impact of inflation on tariffs may be short-lived, but it is also likely to be more durable, depending on the impact of tariffs. In the long run, the Intrerest Rate policy does not affect the supply and demand of the real estate market Intrerest Rate is at a moderate level Some lawmakers asked whether the policy of The Federal Reserve (FED) in the United States has a housing supply. Powell said The Federal Reserve (FED) cannot affect the longer U.S. housing supply shortage. A chronic housing shortage exists, and the Fed can't do anything about it. The best thing the Fed can do is drop inflation, which lowers the Intrerest Rate of the relevant market. Powell noted that Intrerest Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate are indeed affected by The Federal Reserve (FED) policy in the United States, but "this is part of restoring overall price stability." In the long run, the Fed's policies will not affect housing supply and demand. Powell said inflation related to housing costs has been very "sticky" but has fallen recently, which is "very good news." Housing rent-related inflation is now falling fairly regularly. Powell believes that DROP housing inflation "just takes time." It may even take three or four years for the effects of falling rents to be reflected in price indicators. Some lawmakers have since mentioned problems with the housing market, saying many owners seem to be "in trouble" because the Intrerest Rate was low a few years ago and they were reluctant to sell. Powell said it was true that "people were tied up." However, Powell reiterated that the most important thing The Federal Reserve (FED) should do is to continue to reduce the inflation rate to 2% and maintain it at this level for a long time. Powell said the current Intrerest Rate is at the level of modest rather than moderate. Last September's interest rate cut stemmed from concerns that decisions on a sharp rise in unemployment would not take politics into account Some lawmakers asked about the debt problems caused by the Trump administration's massive tax cuts and spending plans, and whether this would weaken the ability of the United States to cope with future recessions. Powell said that in that case, The Federal Reserve (FED) has a lot of room to cut interest rates. Powell has since reiterated his view that the U.S. federal budget has been on an unsustainable trajectory "for some time." Some lawmakers asked why The Federal Reserve (FED) cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of 25 last September. Powell said The Federal Reserve (FED) was concerned about a sharp rise in unemployment at the time. Historical experience...