#ETH# 📊 1. Summary of Fluctuation Data for the Past Week

Date key price range intraday Fluctuation event-driven long and short signals
June 19, $2,510-$2,650 5.6% Fed hawkish expectations suppress, spike and retreat, bears dominate
June 22, $2,115-$2,235, 5.7% Geopolitical conflicts escalate + ETF fund diversion, breakdown and panic selling.
June 24, $2,300-2,400 4.3% Positive impact from the ceasefire with Iran + technical rebound Break through the downward trend line ✅
June 25, $2,115-$2,568, 21.4% BlackRock ETF attracted $160 million in a single day, surging 11.28%📈
June 26 (Current) $2,400-$2,560 6.5% Key resistance zone for long and short positions Fluctuation accumulation
💡 Core Observation:
The weekly fluctuation reached 21.4%, with a low of $2,115 and a high of $2,568, reflecting extremely sensitive market sentiment.
Massive capital inflow: The cumulative net inflow of ETH spot ETFs has surpassed $4.01 billion, with BlackRock attracting $160 million in a single day, an increase of 379% compared to the previous period.
Strong on-chain support: The exchange's ETH supply has dropped to an 8-year low (accounting for 6.38% of the circulating supply), with whales increasing their holdings by a record 1.4 million ETH this week.
⚖ 2. In-depth analysis of long and short factors
Bullish Signal: Key Driving Force for Momentum Breakthrough
Funding: The ETF siphoning effect strengthens
BlackRock's ETHA management fee is only 0.25%, crushing Grayscale's ETHE (2.5%), forming a "liquidity scissors difference". In June, the average daily capital inflow exceeded 66.67 million USD, providing strong support for the price.
If the July 13F filing reveals institutional holdings exceeding expectations (currently <33%), ETH may surge to $3,000.
On-chain data: Supply depletion + Whale accumulation
Staking Lockup: The amount of ETH staked has exceeded 35 million coins (accounting for 28.3% of circulation), and long-term lockup intensifies the Fluctuation of 27.
New demand: The number of new addresses increased from 800,000 to 1 million per week, a 49% increase compared to the same period last year, indicating strong willingness of retail investors to enter the market.
Macroeconomic policy: Expectations of interest rate cuts heat up
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has risen to 70%, and Powell stated for the first time that "if inflation is controlled, rate cuts will come early," which is favorable for risk assets as liquidity improves.
The U.S. stablecoin bill has been passed, speeding up the compliance process, which is expected to attract traditional funds in the medium to long term.
Bearish risk: the last obstacle before the breakout
The key resistance on the technical side has not been broken.
$2,580-$2,680 is a dense accumulation zone, gathering $1.2 billion in leveraged long positions. Without a significant volume increase, it is easy to trigger selling pressure at 46.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is under pressure at 0.055; if it breaks down, the relative weakness will intensify by 7.
Regulatory Black Swan
The SEC may reject the staking ETH ETF (considering the income as "securities interest") by the end of June, which could lead to a short-term drop to $2,30068.
Grayscale ETHE continues to bleed, with a net outflow of $4.28 billion, creating a selling pressure risk of 10.
Geopolitics and Liquidity Traps
The repeated conflicts in the Middle East (such as the risks in the Strait of Hormuz) and the skyrocketing oil prices may drag down ETH6.
Market depth is 37% thinner than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, a $50 million sell order could trigger "nuclear-level Fluctuation".
📈 Three, Key Positions and Operational Strategies
1. Bull-Bear Boundary Line and Targets
Position nature operation significance
2,580↑ Trend reversal confirmed, breakthrough to chase long positions, target 2,780-3,000 dollars
2,400-2,450 Institutional cost strong support Main long area, stop loss 2,380
2,380↓ Bullish defense line breached, stop loss turned to short, target 2,200-2,300 USD
2. Specific Strategy
Current price (around 2,500):
Light position trial long (30% position), stop loss 2,380, target 2,580→2,680610.
Pullback to 2,400-2,450:
Increase position to 50%, move stop loss to 2,380, target 2,650→2,780 (weekly Fibonacci level 0.5) 46.
Breakthrough 2,580:
Chase more (20%), stop loss at 2,530, target 2,780→3,000 (institutional position exposure expectation) 10.
Break below 2,380:
Short position on the reversal, stop loss at 2,420, target 2,200→2,100 (liquidation acceleration zone) 39.
⚠ Four, Risk Warning
SEC Pledge ETF Ruling (End of June): If rejected, ETH may plummet to 2,300, and long positions need to hedge at 68 in advance.
U.S. stock correlation: BTC has a correlation of 0.67 with the Nasdaq, and if tech stocks plummet, ETH will be dragged down by 39.
Leverage liquidation cascade: $336 million on-chain liquidation gathered below 2,400, a breakdown may trigger a Fluctuation 39.
💎 Summary: Fluctuation is slightly bullish, but it is necessary to use stop-loss for breakthrough speculation.
Operation mantra: "Buy at 2,400-2,450, chase the breakthrough at 2,580; run when breaking 2,380, sell on high without volume"
Short term: ETF capital siphoning + on-chain accumulation supports rebound, layout long positions in the 2,400-2,450 range, betting on an upward attack to 2,580.
Medium-term: If it breaks out with volume above 2,580, bullish to 3,000 USD (interest rate cut + institutional holding exposure catalyst); if it falls below 2,380, turn bearish to 2,200.
Hedging advice: Buy 2,350 put options + go long on BTC Fluctuation (VIX) to guard against black swan 610.
Market Focus:
✅ ETH/BTC exchange rate: If it holds at 0.055, ETH is relatively strong;
✅ US stock market opening: A rebound in the Nasdaq may boost risk assets;
✅ On-chain whales: >10,000 ETH transferred to the exchange triggers a warning for selling pressure.
We are currently on the eve of a fluctuation, patiently waiting for clear directional signals. Strict stop-loss measures are necessary to capture the trend!