With the unexpected calming of the Middle East situation, the global economic focus has shifted back to three core issues: tariff policies, inflation trends, and interest rate cut expectations.

First of all, the direction of tariff policies is under close scrutiny. As the exemption period is set to expire in early July, the market is closely watching whether the U.S. will adhere to the default high tariff route or adopt a more moderate strategy of extending the 10% tariff. Although some countries have reached bilateral agreements with the U.S., the overall situation remains unclear. In the next two weeks, Trump's remarks will serve as a market barometer.

Secondly, inflation data will become a key factor in shaping economic policy. The consumer price index (CPI) data for June will reflect the impact of tariffs for the first time, which may significantly affect inflation expectations. If the inflation data for June and July shows an upward trend, it may shake the market's expectations for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation remains low, it will enhance the likelihood of a rate cut.

Finally, the timing of interest rate cuts is also a focus of market attention. Although the market has high expectations for a rate cut in July, the current economic data suggests that this possibility is low. In contrast, the likelihood of a rate cut in September is greater, but this still depends on the inflation trends over the next two months.

It is worth noting that there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the global economic situation. Since the Trump administration took office, the unpredictability of policies has become the norm. The recent sudden changes in the Middle East situation are a typical example. Therefore, investors need to remain vigilant about various possible economic scenarios and flexibly adjust their investment strategies.

In such a complex and ever-changing economic environment, closely monitoring global economic indicators, policy trends, and geopolitical changes will be key to grasping the pulse of the market. In the coming months, the implementation of tariff policies, changes in inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will all have a profound impact on the global economic landscape.