The following is a professional analysis of today's trend and trading strategy for Ethereum (ETHUSDT).

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### **Core Data Overview (Beijing Time 7:35-7:37)**
1. **Current Price**: 2,962.30 - 2,963.45 USDT (+0.69%-0.88%)
2. **24H Key Levels**:
- Highest: 3,019.35
- Minimum: 2,935.00
- Open Interest: 5.311 billion USDT (high position)
3. **Technical Indicators**:
- **EMA**: 5-day (2969) < 10-day (2973) → **Short-term Death Cross Pressure**
- **BOLL Band**: Middle track 2970, upper track 3003, lower track 2937 → **Price closely follows below the middle track**
- **MACD**: DIF(5.53) crosses below DEA(8.08), histogram turns negative(-2.54) → **Bearish momentum strengthens**
4. **Market Sentiment**:
- Long to short ratio: 1.18 (slightly bullish but pulling back)
- Large holder long-short ratio: 1.45 → **Institutions are bullish but declining continuously**
- Funding Rate: -0.028% → **Bearish Dominance**

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### **Today's Trend Assessment**
1. **Short-term (within 4H)**:
- **Bearish Correction**: The price is being suppressed by EMA5/10, with the middle band of BOLL at 2970 being a key resistance.
- If it falls below **2950** (24H low support), it may accelerate the drop to **2937** (BOLL lower band).
2. **Daily Level**:
- **Direction Awaiting Breakthrough**: Need to observe whether it can stabilize at the 2970 mid-track; if it breaks through **2980** with volume, then it will turn bullish.
- Risk Point: MACD Death Cross + Negative Funding Rate → **Beware of Spike Exploding Longs** (Liquidation Zone 2888-2915).

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### **Key Point Strategy**
| **Direction** | **Entry Zone** | **Stop Loss** | **Target** | **Logic** |
|------------|---------------|-------------|-------------|------------------------------|
| **Short Position** | 2965-2970 | 2983 | 2940→2930 | EMA Death Cross + BOLL Middle Track Pressure |
| **Long Position** | 2935-2940 | 2920 | 2970→3000 | BOLL lower band support + liquidation zone rebound |
| **Breakthrough** | Break above 2980 | 2970 | 3020 | Volume support + Trigger of short stop-loss orders |
| **Breakthrough Pursuit** | Break below 2925 | 2945 | 2888 | Break through the liquidation zone and accelerate the decline |

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### **Monthly Profit Plan: 10,000 → 100,000 (High-Risk Strategy)**
#### **Basic Principles**
1. **Position Control**: Single transaction ≤ 5% of principal (initial 500U/transaction), increase position with profits.
2. **Leverage Usage**: 5-10 times (Avoid full leverage to prevent pinning).
3. **Daily Goal**: 3% returns → **Compound monthly can reach 140%** (strict stop loss required).

#### **Phased Strategy**
| **Stage** | **Principal** | **Strategy Focus** | **Key Actions** |
|----------|----------|----------------------------------|-------------------------------|
| **Week 1** | 10,000 USDT | Focus on intraday swings | 2-3 trades daily, take profit 30-50 USDT/trade |
| **Week 2** | 15,000 USD | Join 4H trend position | Withdraw principal after profit, reinvest profits |
| **Week 3** | 30,000 USDT | Target key events (e.g., Federal Reserve decision) | Place breakout orders in advance, stop loss 1% |
| **Week 4** | 60,000-100,000 USDT | Hedge Lock Profit (Long and Short Open) | Withdraw 50% of profits, retain safety cushion |

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### **Specific Operation Suggestions for Today**
1. **Asian Market (8:00-16:00)**:
- Observe resistance at 2970: If not broken, **short at 2965**, stop loss at 2983, target at 2940.
- If it急跌至**2935**轻仓多, stop loss at 2920, target 2960.
2. **EUR/USD (16:00-24:00)**:
- Break through **2980** to go long, target 3000 (close near previous high).
- If the volume breaks below **2940**, go short, target 2920→2888.

> ⚠️ **Risk Warning**:
> - The trading volume in the morning was insufficient (Vol only 26,000) → **Beware of false breakouts**!
> - The long-short ratio of large holders continues to decline → **Beware of a long squeeze**.
> - Use **staged profit-taking** (e.g., sell half at 2930, keep the rest to see 2888).

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### **Key Events to Watch**
- **09:30**: US PPI data (affects USD exchange rate)
- **14:00**: Can the BOLL middle track recover (2970)
- **20:00**: Change in open positions (if sharply reduced → trend reversal signal)

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**Discipline**: Stop trading if daily losses reach 3%, and withdraw profits if gains exceed 5%. Stick to this for a month, and you will develop a high win-rate trading habit rather than relying on luck for profits. If real-time strategy adjustments are needed, the latest candlestick screenshots can be provided!