#CPI数据来袭# CPI data can influence the Fed's interest rate decisions, primarily because CPI is an important indicator of inflation, and one of the Fed's monetary policy goals is to control inflation.

CPI reflects the inflation situation: CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a macroeconomic indicator that measures the changes in the price levels of goods and services consumed by residents. It reflects the degree of inflation or deflation by statistically analyzing the price changes of a basket of representative goods and services. When CPI continues to rise, it means that consumers need to pay more money for the same amount of goods and services, which is usually seen as a signal of inflation; conversely, a decrease in CPI indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure.
The relationship between inflation and interest rates: The Fed needs to keep inflation close to its target level to maintain stable economic growth. If the CPI is above the target level, it indicates significant inflationary pressure, and the Fed may implement tightening monetary policies such as raising interest rates to curb inflation. By increasing interest rates, borrowing costs rise, reducing the money supply in the market, thereby restraining consumption and investment, and alleviating upward pressure on prices. If the CPI is below the target level and shows a sustained downward trend, it may imply insufficient economic growth momentum. At this time, the Fed may lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, raising inflation expectations and bringing inflation back into a reasonable range.

The impact on the cryptocurrency market is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

Short-term volatility: CPI higher than expected may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate hikes or delay rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off of risk assets, putting pressure on the crypto market in the short term. For example, before the CPI announcement in February 2025, Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000. If CPI is lower than expected, it may boost rate cut expectations, weaken the dollar's attractiveness, and drive capital into the crypto market. During the decline of CPI in 2024, Bitcoin rose due to expectations of liquidity easing.
Long-term logic: Theoretically, cryptocurrencies are viewed as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies, but historical correlations are not stable. For example, when the CPI fell in 2022, the price of Bitcoin actually dropped, while at the beginning of 2025, amid high inflation expectations, Bitcoin rebounded at one point, showing that its safe-haven properties are influenced by multiple factors.
Liquidity tightening and technical sell-off: The interest rate hike expectations triggered by high CPI will directly compress market liquidity, and programmatic trading may exacerbate short-term volatility. For example, after the release of CPI data, algorithmic robots often trigger automatic sell or repurchase strategies, leading to severe price fluctuations.