Crypto Market Observation: Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Pullback, CME Gap Draws Attention

Market Overview

Core inflation data in the United States has been below expectations for five consecutive months, but the market is divided on future trends. Some viewpoints suggest that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully materialized, and greater price pressure may occur in July and August; while another faction emphasizes that weak demand limits corporate pricing. There are also differing opinions within the Federal Reserve: some hint at possibly lowering the threshold for interest rate cuts, while others advocate for maintaining a tighter policy for a longer period. Currently, the Federal Reserve tends to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Congress has passed the establishment of "Crypto Currency Week" to accelerate the legislative process, with the "GENIUS Act" becoming the core of the regulatory framework. This act brings stablecoins under regulation, requiring reserves to be in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This initiative not only standardizes the market but may also reshape the global payment system. Some large technology companies have begun to lay out plans for USD/HKD stablecoins, attempting to establish an efficient cross-border settlement network.

After Bitcoin reached a new high of $123,000, it entered a pullback phase, and several analysts are focusing on the CME futures gap repair. It is widely expected that Bitcoin may fall back to the range of $113,800 to $117,000 to fill the gap, and then may welcome a new round of increase. Some analysts believe that the market has not yet peaked, and there is strong support in the range of $93,000 to $109,000.

Ethereum's market cap share has surpassed 10%, with some opinions suggesting that the trends of stablecoins and tokenization are driving the demand for ETH. On the technical front, analysts are focusing on the CME gap in the range of $2,830 to $2,925, believing that after the pullback, Ethereum is expected to break through $3,200.

The altcoin market is showing sector rotation: payment tokens are the first to start, large-cap coins are gathering momentum, and the Solana ecosystem is passing the baton to Layer 1 projects. The popularity of Chinese memes remains strong, with multiple projects hitting all-time highs. AI-related tokens have also seen a significant rise.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,798, up 26.05% year-to-date
• Ethereum: $117,798, year-to-date decline of 5.91%
• Fear and Greed Index: 71 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 62.9%, ETH 10.2%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.4%/50.6%
• Sector performance: DeFi up 5.98%, GameFi up 4.52%
• 24-hour liquidation: total amount 355 million USD, BTC accounts for 87.4977 million USD

ETF Fund Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow for 9 consecutive days, +$403 million
• Ethereum ETF: Net inflow for 8 consecutive days, +$192 million

Market Outlook

• Multiple projects will conduct token issuance or airdrops.
• The United States will hold a hearing on digital asset tax policy.
• The Federal Reserve will release the economic conditions report.
• Multiple projects will see token unlocks

The market focus remains on the CME gap repairs of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts generally believe that a pullback to the corresponding price levels may welcome a new round of increases. At the same time, regulatory trends and macroeconomic data will continue to affect market movements.