ETH hits 4800: Under the shadow of a big dump, where are the predictions for the bull run?

#ETH冲击4800# #ETH#

Recently, the ETH trend has been too "crazy"! A few days ago, it suddenly fell by 10%, and the community went into an uproar—some shouted, "4800 dream shattered, bear market rebooted," while others cursed, "the bears are smashing the market to harvest profits." But I noticed an unusual detail: during the big dump, the TVL (Total Value Locked) of ETH on DEX (decentralized exchanges) actually increased by 120 million dollars. What does this resemble? It's like a stock market crash, yet investors are frantically transferring money to brokerage accounts, an unusual action of "buying more as it falls," hiding a big opportunity?

1. "Who is buying the dip during the 'big dump and liquidation crisis'?"

Looking at the funding rate, the long and short funding rate in the futures market has dropped to -0.3% (normally around 0), indicating that a large number of short-term bears are "opening positions betting on a big dump." However, on-chain data contradicts this: the number of ETH holding addresses has reached a new three-month high, and among the new addresses, over 60% are "mid-to-large holders" holding 10 - 100 ETH. In simple terms, this means that "large funds are well aware of the impending short-term fall, yet they are increasing their positions." Why? Looking at the Ethereum ecosystem, the deployment volume of L2 (Layer 2) protocols increased by 47% in Q2, with over 500,000 daily active users on DAPPs (decentralized applications) on Arbitrum and Optimism. This indicates that the demand for ETH as ecosystem "fuel" is surging in hidden ways—just like gas stations are opening more and more, how can the long-term value of oil be poor?

Second, how do we view the technical and ecological aspects at the 4800 level?

Technical analysts are arguing about "MACD divergence and double tops", but they overlook a key point: after the ETH 2.0 upgrade, the staking amount has exceeded 34 million (accounting for 18% of the circulating supply), which means "1/5 of the ETH in the market is locked and immobile". The supply-demand relationship has changed! To draw an analogy with the real estate market, if 1/5 of the houses are held for the long term, the remaining circulating supply decreases, how will housing prices move? Looking at derivatives, in the perpetual contract positions, institutional accounts hold 58% of the long positions, clearly laying out a "long-term strategy"—the big dump is just a short-term emotional release; the "slow variables" of ecological expansion and staking lock-up provide the foundation to break through 4800.

3. Should we panic now or rush in?

Don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations! Those in the community shouting "big dump" are mostly short-term traders who can't hold their positions; while the medium to large holders who "buy more as it falls" are betting on the "long-term value realization" of the Ethereum ecosystem. My strategy: small positions follow the sentiment (place buy orders at low during big dumps), large positions bet on the ecosystem (hold spot and enjoy the benefits of L2 explosion).

Finally, here's a question: If ETH really breaks through 4800, do you think it is a "technical bull run" or an "ecological value bull run"?