ETH hits 4800: Where are the bull run predictions hidden under the shadow of the big dump?

#ETH冲击4800# #ETH#

Recently, the ETH trend is too "crazy"! A few days ago, it suddenly fell by 10%, and the community directly exploded—some shouted "the dream of 4800 shattered, the bear market restarts", while others cursed "the bears smashing the market and harvesting profits". However, I noticed an unusual detail: during the big dump, the on-chain ETH DEX (decentralized exchange) TVL (total value locked) actually increased by 120 million dollars. What does this resemble? It's like the stock market crashing, yet investors are frantically transferring money to brokerage accounts; the unusual behavior of "buying more as it falls" hides a big opportunity?

1. In the "big dump and liquidation wave", who is buying the dip?

Looking at the funding rate, the long-short funding rate in the futures market has dropped to -0.3% (normally around 0), indicating that a large number of short-term bears are "opening positions betting on a big dump." However, on-chain data tells a different story: the number of ETH holding addresses has reached a three-month high, and among the new addresses, over 60% are "mid to large holders" holding 10 - 100 ETH. In plain language, it means that "big funds know that a short-term fall is coming, yet they are increasing their positions." Why? Looking at the Ethereum ecosystem, the deployment of L2 (Layer 2) protocols increased by 47% in Q2, and DAPPs (decentralized applications) on Arbitrum and Optimism have over 500,000 daily active users. This means that ETH, as the ecosystem's "fuel," has a demand that is surging invisibly—just like gas stations multiplying, how can the long-term value of oil be bad?

2. How do we view the technical and ecological aspects at the 4800 level?

The tech crowd is arguing about "MACD divergence and double top" but overlooks a key point: after the ETH 2.0 upgrade, the staking volume has exceeded 34 million (accounting for 18% of the circulating supply), which means "1/5 of the ETH in the market is locked and inactive." The supply-demand relationship has changed! To draw an analogy with the real estate market, if 1/5 of the houses are held long-term, the remaining circulating supply decreases, how will housing prices move? Looking at derivatives, in perpetual contract positions, institutional accounts hold 58% of long positions, clearly "positioning for the long term"—the big dump is just a short-term emotional outburst; the "slow variables" of ecological expansion and staking lockup are what provide the confidence to break through 4800.

3. Should we panic now or go for it?

Don't be led by short-term fluctuations! Those in the community shouting "crash" are mostly short-term traders who couldn't hold their positions; while the medium to large holders who "buy more as it falls" are betting on the "long-term value realization" of the Ethereum ecosystem. My strategy: Small positions following the sentiment (placing low buy orders during big dumps), large positions betting on the ecosystem (holding spot and benefiting from L2 explosions).

Finally, a question: If ETH really breaks through 4800, do you think it is a "technical bull run" or an "ecological value bull run"?