#山寨季来了？# altcoin season index is approaching a critical threshold, which is used to track the performance of altcoins relative to BTC, and may indicate whether the cryptocurrency market is entering a phase where altcoins outperform BTC!

Current capital inflows are more inclined towards altcoins, further confirming the market's optimistic sentiment. When 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) outperform Bitcoin within 90 days, the altcoin season will be confirmed. Currently, only 50% of altcoins have returns exceeding Bitcoin, indicating that there is still room for growth before a full-blown boom arrives.
However, Ethereum has surged 27% this week alone, leading many other tokens to hit new highs for several months. If more altcoins follow Ethereum and outperform BTC in the coming weeks, the necessary threshold for the altcoin season may be reached at the beginning of next month.
The dominance of Bitcoin is weakening
Over the past five days, Bitcoin's dominance has significantly decreased by 5.6 percentage points, dropping from 64.5% to 60.9%, reaching a new low in four and a half months, reflecting the market's increasing preference for altcoins. A decline in dominance is typically the first signal that the altcoin season is approaching. The rise of Ethereum has had a significant impact on this decline; although market share has shrunk, Bitcoin's price has not dropped, indicating that the market is undergoing a healthy transformation rather than a sell-off, with the asset continuing to consolidate below $120,000.
However, caution is still needed. If altcoin investors start to take profits due to the recent rise, the selling pressure may hinder the upward trend. Currently, many tokens are at multi-month highs, and a significant sell-off or reversal of the upward trend could delay the real altcoin season until the third quarter of 2025.