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🔍 1. Market Status Interpretation (daily chart)
1. Trend structure
• Currently still in the continuation phase of an upward trend, the price has not fallen below the 5-day or 10-day moving average;
• The highest point of 123,264 has formed a short-term high, and it is currently in a sideways consolidation phase.
2. Bollinger Bands
• The Bollinger Bands are moderately wide, with the price fluctuating between the middle band and the upper band, indicating that the trend is still active;
• Middle track support level: approximately 115,926. If it breaks down, it will test the lower track support.
3. MACD
• DIF > DEA, green bars begin to enlarge, momentum weakens with signs of a dead cross, beware of short-term adjustments;
• If the death cross is confirmed, a phase correction may occur.
4. KDJ
• The KDJ indicator is entangled around 50, indicating that the short-term direction is unclear, and the main force is testing.
• If the K-line quickly breaks below the D/J line, it will release a bearish signal.
5. RSI
• RSI6, 12, and 24 are all between 50 and 65, indicating a relatively strong but not extreme state;
• If the RSI12 falls below 50, it may enter a consolidation or downward trend.
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🧠 2. Trader's mindset (combining market feel and main force behavior)
✅ The current strategy of the main force may be:
1. Consolidation and washout, reducing retail investors' confidence in holding positions;
2. Chip horizontal turnover, preparing for the next round of surge or testing support downwards;
3. If BTC stabilizes above 115,000 and rebounds with volume, it will be a signal for the main force to continue controlling the market and break upwards.
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📉 3. Operation Suggestions (Based on Different Positions)
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🟩 If you are a bull:
• Wait for confirmation that the support does not break on the pullback (for example, 115,000~116,000) and you can try to open a small long position;
• Set the stop-loss level below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (approximately 115,000);
• The upward targets are: 120,000 / 122,000 / breaking 123,000 can see new highs.
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🟥 If you are shorting:
• You can pay attention to the rebound strength around 121,000~122,000 as a short-term short point;
• Alternatively, wait for the MACD death cross + volume increase on the downside to confirm, entering short is more prudent;
• Set the stop loss above 123,500, targeting the Bollinger middle band or the 110,000 area.
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