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Proof of posting -- ETH will break the previous high in November, let's fight!
As the market stabilizes, funds continue to flow out, and ETH has become the most eye-catching and profitable target recently. First, I want to state my position: I am a new recruit in the E-Guard, enlisted in May with an entry point of 2460, and my current ammunition status is: fully stocked in spot trading. My reasons for volunteering are as follows:
1. Technical Development - Key Expansion Solutions Implemented, L2 Ecosystem Thriving
✅ The Proto-Danksharding upgrade, completed in Q2 2025, increased block capacity by 8 times, reduced Gas fees to below $0.01, and led to explosive growth in ecological applications (daily active contract addresses increased by 217% year-on-year).
✅ In response to the congestion issues faced by the Ethereum mainnet, Layer 2 ecosystems such as Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, and StarkNet are continually developing to enhance on-chain efficiency. Currently, L2 accounts for 78% of the total network transaction volume, with a TVL exceeding $42 billion, validating Vitalik Buterin's "Rollup-centric" scalability approach.
✅ By July 2025, the total amount of staked ETH will exceed 19.2 million, approaching 16% of the circulating supply. On-chain burning fees have reached new highs, the deflation rate of ETH is increasing, and rarity is driving the price of the coin further up.
2. Traditional Capital - Optimistic Sentiment, Accelerated Entry
✅After the SEC in the United States approved the ETH spot ETF in March 2025, the cumulative net inflow of funds reached $9.4 billion.
✅The BlackRock fund's spot ETF weekly subscription volume set a record of $520 million, which is several times the amount of BTC.
✅In July, companies accumulated an increase of 545,000 ETH (1.6 billion USD), with SharpLink Gaming holding 216,000 ETH, reflecting the shift of traditional corporate capital towards ETH investment and wealth management.
3. Regulatory Environment - Significant Improvement Combined with Interest Rate Cut Expectations
✅ The new chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supports crypto innovation and no longer treats ETH as an "unregistered security". The passage of the "Genius Act" and the "Clarity Act" clarifies the legal status of Ethereum.
✅The SEC clarified on May 29 that "staking does not violate securities laws," which boosted institutional confidence in participating in staking. Institutions like BlackRock are applying to introduce staking features for Ethereum ETFs, which may further drive capital inflows.
✅The expectation of global interest rate cuts is rising, which may prompt capital to flow into high-growth assets.
4. Market Sentiment - Optimistic but Not at Peak
✅Emotional Indicator Divergence
Despite prices being close to historical highs, the ETH Fear and Greed Index (72) is still below the peak of 2024 (89), indicating that the market has not reached an extreme euphoria state.
✅Options market betting
In the Deribit exchange's December expiry options open interest, the $4800 call options account for 34%, an increase of 11 percentage points from last month.
✅ On-chain data shows that the addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have increased their holdings by 12.4% over the past three months, and a certain mysterious institution has continuously purchased 370,000 ETH (approximately $1.43 billion) through OTC.
5. K-Line Indicator Analysis
✅From the daily chart perspective, today's price action has once again broken through recent highs, followed by a slight pullback. Given that the current MACD is showing a bearish divergence, there may be some short-term adjustment space on the daily chart. However, the RSI (6, 12, 24) has consistently remained in the strong zone — 75.86, 79.00, and 74.03. The buying momentum is quite strong.
✅From the weekly chart perspective, in the third week of July, there was a significant breakout above the $3850 neckline, with the OBV volume indicator reaching an all-time high; the weekly indicators continue to stay above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong short-term trend, with future resistance around $4200, and a breakthrough would target $4800.
💡As for why this time is November, old players all know that every November is the excitement point for Bitcoin. In the previous three bull markets, except for the peak of 66000 in June, the other market trends peaked in October and November, and ETH's highest point should also appear simultaneously.
❓Can Ethereum lead the next bull market?
Given that the current ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the key level of 0.05, indicating an increase in the attractiveness of Yita, although I am an E guardian, I believe that the second half of this bull market may be a pattern led alternately by Bitcoin and Yita, similar to the "two-eight conversion" in the stock market, where Yita represents many altcoins, and the rise of Yita will bring about the arrival of the "altcoin season."
📈📈📈As for my position strategy,
Next, I will consider adjusting my position and opening some coin-based long contracts at a ratio of 7:3 for spot/contract. Given that the daily MACD shows a top divergence and there is a need for correction indicators, as well as a trend of convergence between MA5 and MA10, I will open a position when the market retraces to around 3750 with a stop-loss.
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Everyone with different opinions hurry up and confront me, let me see the firepower of the air force, I want to fight ten!
#ETH冲击4800# #ETH#