Solana (SOL) price prediction: Daily volume hits a new high in 12 months! Re-testing the $170 key resistance, losing it may trigger a 'death cross' fall to $125?

Solana (SOL) has risen 2.7% in the past 24 hours and is once again attempting to break through the $170 key resistance zone, indicating that long positions are trying to maintain the rebound momentum. Despite a recent price pullback (down 6% over 7 days), on-chain data reveals positive signals: the daily trading volume on the Solana network reached 816 million transactions in the week ending July 21, setting a 12-month high. However, the number of active addresses has dropped to its lowest level since last September, forming an "on-chain divergence." The technical analysis shows that the $170 area forms a critical resistance convergence point with the 9-day and 21-day EMA; a failure to break through could trigger a "death cross" bearish signal, with a short-term target potentially looking down at $125. This article analyzes the key nodes in SOL's recent trend based on on-chain activity and price charts.

Price Dynamics: Long positions attack $170 again, volume suggests resistance is not solid Solana (SOL) has risen 2.7% in the past 24 hours and is currently attempting to break through the key price area of $170 again. This indicates that long positions are still working hard to sustain the rebound trend. However, the current volume has not significantly increased, meaning that short positions have not yet formed a strong resistance in this area. Nevertheless, the price has shown buying interest after a recent fall, which itself conveys a positive signal. In the past 7 days, the SOL price has pulled back about 6%, in line with the overall consolidation rhythm of the crypto market after the strong rise in July. The token previously reached a peak of $206 before gradually falling back to around $156; although the current rebound has narrowed the decline, the pullback remains over 20%.

On-chain Highlights: Daily trading volume surges to a 12-month peak, while the decrease in active addresses draws attention Delving into on-chain data, Artemis shows that the daily transaction volume on the Solana blockchain remains on an upward trend. In the week ending July 21, the network's daily transaction volume reached 816 million transactions, setting a 12-month high. Although the transaction volume has slightly pulled back since then, the overall network usage intensity remains significant. Notably, in contrast to this is the decline in daily active addresses—this metric fell from around 5.5 million in mid-May to 3.9 million at the end of July, marking the lowest level since September of last year. This divergence of "high transaction volume accompanied by low active addresses" may indicate that current network activity is primarily driven by long positions holders or seasoned users, rather than an influx of new users attracted by market hype or FOMO.

Stablecoin Trends: Funds May Shift to Risk Assets, Indicating Bullish Sentiment Another on-chain metric—the trading volume of stablecoins—has also slightly decreased from a 12-month peak of $12.7 billion to $11.2 billion last week. The decline in stablecoin trading volume could be attributed to various factors, one compelling explanation being that investors are shifting funds from stable assets to higher-risk cryptocurrencies (such as SOL itself or meme coins within the ecosystem). This is often interpreted as a bullish signal. When stablecoin reserves increase, it typically indicates that investors are holding off (bearish); whereas the current situation is the opposite, which may suggest that whale investors are taking advantage of price pullbacks to accumulate their desired assets, betting that the rebound will eventually restart.

Technical Warning: $170 is the dividing line for long and short positions, falling below may trigger a "death cross" Focusing on the daily chart, SOL is currently rebounding and is retesting the $170 key resistance level. The significance of this position is amplified as it forms a technical resonance zone with the 9-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). If the price encounters strong selling pressure here and is blocked from rising, it may trigger a deeper decline, pushing the market from a "healthy pullback" into the realm of "technical correction". The more severe risk is that the 9-day and 21-day EMA are gradually approaching the 200-day EMA, greatly increasing the possibility of confirming a trend reversal (such as forming a "death cross"). If a bearish signal from the "death cross" forms, SOL's price may test the $125 support level in the short term.

Conclusion: On-chain activity and technical pressure struggle, SOL stabilizes at $170 to break the deadlock Currently, Solana (SOL) market presents conflicting signals: on one hand, daily volume reaches new highs and stablecoin funds may shift towards risk assets, suggesting intrinsic vitality of the ecosystem and bullish expectations from investors; on the other hand, the decrease in active addresses and the price facing $170 key resistance and EMA line pressure highlight technical challenges. In the short term, the outcome of the battle in the $170 region is crucial—successfully breaking through will alleviate downside risks and open up space for a resurgence; conversely, if resistance is confirmed, one must be wary of a "death cross" formation potentially triggering a deeper pullback to $125. Investors should closely monitor the volume changes in this price area and the arrangement of the EMA lines, while also tracking whether on-chain active addresses can recover to validate the sustainability of network growth. The high intensity of underlying activities in the Solana ecosystem continues to provide key support for its long-term value.