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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
Just shy of the $4,891 ATH—think it breaks through?
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Has the four-year cryptocurrency cycle ended? More and more believers.
The cryptocurrency market has historically gone through cycles of growth and decline lasting four years, seemingly revolving around the Bitcoin halving event. However, according to the views of analysts and industry experts, this pattern may be breaking down.
"The companies on the list of the top 100 Bitcoin holders currently own nearly 1 MILLION Bitcoin," author and investor Jason Williams shared in a post on X on Sunday.
"This is exactly why the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has ended." Matthew Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, also expressed similar views in an article published by CNBC on Friday.
"It cannot be confirmed that it has officially ended until we see positive profits in 2026. However, I believe that will happen, so let’s put it this way: The four-year cycle has ended," Hougan emphasized, while reiterating his comments from July.
In the last three market cycles, the price peak of Bitcoin often occurs the year after the halving event, specifically in the years 2013, 2017, 2021, and now it will happen again four years later in 2025.
"It seems that the likelihood of the four-year cycle having ended is higher," said Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, in a post on X on Monday.
He added that Bitcoin's halving events are "not significant to the transaction flow," as 95% of BTC has been mined and the supply mainly comes from "buybacks from OGs," while the demand comes from "retail aggregation, ETPs being added to asset platforms, and companies holding."
"The four-year halving cycle remains a useful reference point, but it is no longer the sole factor driving market behavior," said Martin Burgherr, client director at Sygnum Bank, to Cointelegraph.
He also stated that as the market matures, macroeconomic conditions, capital flows from institutions, regulatory developments, and the acceptance of ETFs have become equally influential.
"In reality, the four-year timeframe is becoming one of many input factors, rather than the central scenario of the market."
The cryptocurrency analyst "CRYPTO₿IRB" has a contradictory viewpoint, telling 715,000 followers on X on Sunday that the claim that the four-year cycle has disappeared is "wrong."
He explained that ETFs have reinforced the four-year cryptocurrency cycles because traditional finance follows the four-year presidential cycle, and ETFs increase the "correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Not to mention the four-year halving cycles, this simply cannot be undone as they are mathematically programmed."
The CEO of Xapo Bank, Seamus Rocca, shared in July that the risk of a prolonged bear market is very real and the four-year cycles remain intact. "Many people are saying, 'Oh, institutions have arrived, and so the cyclical nature of Bitcoin is dead.' I'm not sure I agree with that perspective," he stated.
Mr. Teacher