#美7月PPI年率高于预期#

PPI surged, and Powell's interest rate cut strategy may need to be reworked.
The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was higher than expected, which is like a big goose suddenly popping up on the runway of interest rate cuts—you have to hit the brakes first. The rise in PPI means that the pressure of production costs is not easing, and this pressure will ultimately be passed on to consumers, making it difficult for CPI to come down.
The market originally bet on a rate cut in September, but the chances of winning this lottery have now shrunk. Powell must consider a reality: hasty rate cuts could reignite inflation, while rate hikes might damage the old economy.
Interestingly, the factors driving the PPI are not simple; the rebound in energy prices, supply chain adjustments, and increased orders in certain industries are all complicating the situation. This "multiple factors overlapping" inflation is more challenging to handle than a single overheating demand.
Therefore, the upcoming monetary policy may be more conservative - less commitment and more wait-and-see. If investors are still fantasizing about a "flooding bull market", it's best to leave some mental space for the "sideways fluctuations during the wait-and-see period"; otherwise, it is easy to overturn in the emotional curve.