#美国经济指标和货币政策# Reviewing the economic cycles of the United States over the past few decades, each release of inflation data has been a focal point for the market. Tonight's CPI data is similarly crucial. Wells Fargo expects inflation to rise slightly, which aligns with my assessment. The impact of tariffs is gradually becoming apparent, but weak consumption also limits the space for price increases. Historically, the Fed tends to seek a balance between inflation and growth. If the data confirms the transmission of tariffs and economic uncertainty, the Fed may become more cautious. This reminds me of the situation after the 2008 financial crisis when policymakers faced a similar dilemma. However, the current situation is more complex, with factors such as globalization and trade friction influencing policy direction. For investors, closely following economic indicators and the direction of monetary policy is crucial, but one must also be wary of overinterpreting single data points. After all, the evolution of economic cycles is a long-term process that requires comprehensive analysis to make accurate judgments.