#通胀数据及影响# Reflecting on the experiences of these years, I deeply feel the significant impact of inflation data on the market. The latest published wholesale price index far exceeded expectations, which reminded me of the scene on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, inflationary pressures were also continuously rising, ultimately triggering a series of chain reactions.

The current situation is somewhat similar, but also different. Companies are adjusting pricing to cope with tariff costs, which may further drive up inflation. However, the job market seems to be relatively stable, which gives policymakers some breathing room.

The key is the attitude of the Federal Reserve. Based on historical experience, they tend to act cautiously. Musalem's statement confirms this - the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is low. This reminds me of the gradual rate cuts the Federal Reserve implemented after the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

For those of us who have experienced multiple cycles, the current situation is both familiar and unfamiliar. The familiar part is the fluctuation of economic indicators, while the unfamiliar part is the complex factors under the backdrop of globalization. For instance, Trump's tariff policy has added new uncertainties to the economy.

Looking back at the past and looking forward to the future, I believe the focus should be on the following aspects: first, observing how companies digest tariff costs; second, paying attention to the trends in the labor market; third, closely monitoring the statements and actions of the Federal Reserve. History always repeats itself in new ways, but insight and patience are always key to navigating through cycles.