SCDO AI Ethereum Market Analysis (2025.03.27) - The fluctuation in search of the bottom continues, beware of key support and breakout.

1. Price Trend Review of Yesterday's Market (March 26) Opening Price: $2066.10 (Opened high driven by the rebound of U.S. stocks)
Intraday volatility: The lowest dipped to $2005 (dragged down by the decline in U.S. stocks), ultimately closing down 3.4% at $2010.
Core driver: The volatility of the US stock market triggers risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market, with ETH following BTC in a simultaneous pullback.
Today's market (March 27) current price: fluctuating around 2010 USD (as of 20:00 UTC+8)
Volume change: trading volume shrinks, price rises accompanied by insufficient momentum, be cautious of pullback risks.
2. Technical Analysis in Depth 1. Trend and Momentum Short-term Structure: The 4-hour chart forms a "descending triangle". If it breaks below the support at 1980 dollars, it will open up downward space.
Key Indicators:
MACD: Death cross below the zero line, green bars expanding, bearish momentum strengthening;
RSI: 35-40 weak range, no oversold signal seen, short term may continue to fluctuate;
Support/Resistance:
Strong support: $1980 (March 27 low, validated multiple times without breaking);
Key resistance: $2070-2100 (chip concentration area, multiple pressures).
2. Weekly and monthly signal Weekly level: If it breaks below the 200-week moving average (2100 USD), failing to recover may confirm a medium-term weakening;
Monthly level: Q1 cumulative decline of 43%, creating the worst historical start, need to be vigilant against the inertia of technical selling.
3. Market Drivers 1. Policy and macro regulatory disturbances: The US SEC plans to tighten the supervision of privacy coins to suppress the popularity of altcoins in the short term, and funds may return to BTC;
Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for interest rate cuts rise, but the dollar index remains strong, with limited improvements in liquidity.
2. Funds and on-chain data exchange data: ETH net outflow reached an 18-month high, large holders increased their positions but market selling pressure did not decrease;
Ecosystem Dynamics: Layer-2 TVL continues to rise, mainnet demand shrinks, and ETH inflation rate rises to 0%.
3. Market sentiment is a tug of war between bulls and bears: the number of holding addresses is increasing, but short-term traders tend to take profits, and the sentiment leans towards caution.
4. Operational Strategy Recommendations 1. Short-term Trading Short Position Strategy: Build positions in batches between 2070-2100 USD, stop loss at 2150 USD, target at 1950-1980 USD;
Long position strategy: If the price stabilizes between $1950 and $1980, you can try a light long position with a stop loss at $1920 and a target of $2050.
2. Medium to long-term positioning on dips: If it retraces to the 1850-1900 USD range (the low before November 2023), consider buying in batches, targeting 2200 USD;
Position recommendation: Maintain core position
User:
The analysis is on the行情 of SOL, not the行情 of ETH. Currently, the price of SOL is around 138.
Yuanbao:
SCDO AI SOL Market Analysis (2025.03.27) - Key Support Level Game, Beware of Volume Changes and Market Sentiment
1. Price Trend Review Current Price: Around 138 USD (down about 4.3% from yesterday), within the support range of 135.8-141.4 USD.
Intraday volatility: the lowest dropped to $135.8 (close to the low on March 27), and the highest rebounded to $141.4 (second support level on the 4-hour chart).
2. In-depth technical analysis 1. Trend and momentum Short-term structure: The 4-hour chart forms a "descending wedge". If it holds the $138 support, it may trigger a technical rebound to $144.5 (previous high resistance).
Key Indicators:
MACD: Adhesion below the zero axis, green bars shrinking, bearish momentum weakening;
RSI: 42 (close to the oversold area), there is a short-term demand for correction;
Support/Resistance:
Strong support: $135.8 (March 27 low, validated multiple times without breaking);
Key resistance: $141.4 (second support turned resistance at the 4-hour level).
2. Weekly and monthly signal Weekly level: If it breaks below the 200-week moving average (152 USD), failing to recover may confirm a mid-term weakening;
Monthly level: Q1 cumulative decline of 43%, creating the worst start in history, need to be alert to the inertia of technical sell-offs.
3. Market Driving Factors 1. Policy and Macro Regulatory Disturbances: The US SEC plans to tighten regulations on privacy coins, which may suppress the enthusiasm for altcoins in the short term, and capital may flow back to BTC;
Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, but the US Dollar Index remains strong, with limited improvements in liquidity.
2. Capital and on-chain data exchange data: SOL net outflow hit an 18-month high, large holders increased their positions but market selling pressure has not decreased;
Ecosystem dynamics: Layer-2 TVL continues to rise, mainnet demand shrinks, and SOL inflation rebounds to 0%.
3. Expected Technical Upgrade Firedancer Upgrade: The client upgrade plan led by Jump Trading is scheduled for full deployment in 2025, which may enhance network performance and attract institutional funds;
ETF Approval: Institutions such as VanEck and Bitwise have submitted spot ETF applications, and if approved, it may drive a liquidity explosion.
4. Trading Strategy Recommendations 1. Short-term Long Position Strategy: Build positions in batches at $135.8-$136.6, stop loss at $132, target at $144.5;
Short strategy: short around 141.4 US dollars, stop loss at 143 US dollars, target 132-130 US dollars.
2. Medium to long-term layout for buying on dips: If it retraces to the $120-$125 range (2024 low), you can buy in batches, targeting $150;
Position recommendation: Maintain core positions and pay attention to the progress of Firedancer's implementation and ETF approval.
5. Risk Warning High Volatility Risk: The implied volatility of SOL options has risen to 48%, and extreme market conditions may trigger a cascade of programmatic trading.
Liquidity Trap: The total market capitalization of the crypto market has dropped to $2.1 trillion, and the lack of liquidity in altcoins may weigh on SOL.
Technical resistance: Weekly level breaks below the bear market trend line (152 USD), need to be cautious of continued breakdown.