Solana Price Prediction: SOL falls into a short-term "cooling" phase, with a new wave of holders brewing a downward reversal.

Solana (SOL) recently broke through 200 USD, but soon encountered a pullback, currently reporting 182 USD during the Asian early session today (25th), with a daily fall of 4.50%. Like many meme coins in the Solana ecosystem, the SOL Token is also entering a short-term "cooling" phase. However, analysts state that a new wave of holders is brewing a reversal of the decline.

The market focuses on whether the SOL rise is just a healthy pullback before the continuation of an upward trend or the beginning of a deeper decline. On-chain data and key technical support levels indicate that a strong support level cluster is forming below the current price, which may open up opportunities for a reversal in the short term.

New SOL wallets are emerging continuously

Despite the price fall, SOL short-term investors have not retreated—they are actively increasing their holdings. The "holder volatility" chart over the past 3 months shows a significant increase in the number of wallets holding SOL within a time frame of 1 day to 1 week—indicating that new purchasing power is quietly accumulating.

Specifically, in the recent adjustment, two major short-term HODL groups have significantly increased: the proportion of wallets holding for 1 day to 1 week jumped from 6.67% to 8.67%, an increase of 30%. At the same time, the group holding for 1 week to 1 month also rose from 8.73% to 9.3%, an increase of about 6.5%.

These are not isolated cases; a similar situation occurred in May when SOL also fell into a correction. At that time, the number of short-term wallets surged, and the price quickly rebounded. A similar situation has now arisen, indicating that despite experiencing a pullback, buyer sentiment remains strong.

(Source: Glassnode)

In short, the number of wallets holding SOL for less than a week is increasing—this is usually a positive sign during price adjustments.

HODL Waves index reflects the distribution of tokens over time. When the proportion of "young" wallets (i.e., wallets that have bought recently) increases, it indicates that new funds are continuously flowing into the market.

Support at $175 to $180 remains unchanged

The next important factor to pay attention to is whether SOL can hold the current key support level. According to the cost basis heat map, the price range of $175 to $180 reflects a high concentration of wallets — this is one of the strongest support levels since April. Many investors have also bought in this range, and they are likely to continue holding their positions in this area. The total cumulative supply of tokens in this range is 38,964,258 SOL.

(Source: Glassnode)

It is noteworthy that the Bull-Bear Power Index remains bullish. Despite some signs of weakness, buying power still dominates selling pressure - indicating that market sentiment has not been shaken by the recent pullback. According to the heat map, bulls still hold the dominant position and may maintain the current price range.

The strong support level on the cost basis chart, combined with the current bullish advantage, reinforces the possibility of a price rebound around $175—even if the price retraces here. In this scenario, the fall would only be about 5.4% from the current price. Unless this support level is thoroughly breached, the likelihood of a quick reversal is high.

(Source: Trading View)

SOL price breaks support level, but shows no obvious signs of weakness

From a technical perspective, SOL is currently testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 187 USD, which is measured from the June low (126 USD) to the July high (206 USD). Although this price area has been temporarily breached at the time of writing, SOL is still struggling to reclaim this important position.

The recent support level below is located at 184 USD. If it cannot be maintained, the price may further fall towards the strong support level of 175 USD - which is also the starting point of the cost basis accumulation area.

This has formed a significant technical convergence area around $175 to $180. This will be a key price area to determine the next round of trends. If the price successfully rebounds from this area, a bullish structure may be maintained. Conversely, a fall below $175 will open the door for deeper retracements, with target levels potentially at $166 or lower.

(Source: Trading View)