A social experiment of "mobile mining": The history and future of Pi coin, is it a democratized encryption dream or a capital game?

Origins and Rise: From Stanford Laboratory to 50 Million Global Users of the Encryption Experiment:
On March 14, 2019, Nicolas Kokkalis, Ph.D. from Stanford University, launched a mobile app called Pi Network on "Pi Day", claiming that users only need to click a button once a day to "mine" through their mobile phones, without professional mining machines, no power consumption, and zero cost. This design completely subverts the mechanism of traditional cryptocurrencies that rely on computing power competition, and lowers the threshold of blockchain to the extreme. Pi Network's goal is to create a "populist blockchain" that allows housewives, students, and even retirees to participate in the crypto revolution.
In just six years, Pi Network has attracted over 50 million registered users worldwide, with 18 million passing strict KYC certification, making it one of the projects with the largest user base in the history of encryption. Especially in Asia, communities in South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines rank among the top three globally in terms of activity. In Taiwan, there are even over 200 merchants accepting Pi coin for rent payments and purchasing bubble tea, with the offline consensus price of 1 Pi coin being approximately 0.8-1 US dollars.
However, behind the "civilian narrative" of this experiment lies controversy. The launch date of the mainnet has been postponed multiple times (from 2021 to 2025), the tokens have been unable to trade for a long time, the price of the "IOU futures" listed on exchanges ($48.3) differs significantly from the offline P2P price, and the community questions whether the team is maintaining the scarcity of the tokens through delays.
Technological Democratization: The Utopian Narrative of Mobile Mining:
The technical architecture of Pi Network attempts to integrate two major innovations:
1. **Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP)**: Abandoning the high-energy consumption PoW mechanism of Bitcoin, achieving low-energy consensus through the Federated Byzantine Agreement (FBA), allowing mobile users to participate in transaction validation;
2. **Layered Role System**: From "Pioneer" (daily sign-in mining) to "Node" (running a full node), users are allocated tokens based on their contributions, forming a bottom-up governance structure.
This design has quickly made Pi Network an entry point for "non-technical groups". For example, Filipino workers can transfer money across borders using the Pi wallet with fees only 1/10 of traditional banks, while applications like "Pi Health" attempt to utilize anonymous medical data to train AI models. Supporters believe that if the mainnet successfully launches, Pi could become the infrastructure for inclusive finance in developing countries, shaking the dominance of SWIFT.
However, the simplification of technology has also raised questions. Wu Haifeng, a researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out that the low computing power requirements for mobile Mining mean that the underlying algorithms are simple, raising doubts about security. Moreover, the Pi code is not open-source, and the mainnet has been closed for a long time, which goes against the concept of decentralization.
Controversy vortex: capital game or pyramid scheme trap?
The expansion model of Pi Network has been criticized as a variant of the "Ponzi model":
- **Referral Mechanism**: Users can increase their Mining rate by inviting newcomers, forming a multi-level rebate structure;
- **Data Monetization**: The project party profits through in-app advertisements, and users' daily clicks actually contribute traffic to the platform.
Media such as Xinhua News Agency directly pointed out its "pyramid scheme tactics", stating that middle-aged and elderly people have become the main targets for harvesting, with some users investing tens of thousands of yuan to purchase "mining power", but facing risks of mainnet delays and the inability to cash out tokens.
In addition, the token economic model of Pi is said to have fatal flaws:
- **Trillion Valuation Bubble**: Based on a maximum supply of 100 billion coins, if Pi coin reaches 1 USD, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed 100 billion USD, far surpassing the actual circulating capacity (only 2 billion coins);
- **Risk of uncontrolled inflation**: The remaining 9.8 billion tokens need to be gradually released. If the team manipulates the unlocking pace, it may trigger a panic sell-off.
Future Simulation: Three Possibilities and the Ultimate Proposition of Social Experiment:
On February 20, 2025, Pi Network opened its mainnet, marking a turning point in its fate. The market's predictions for its future show a three-way divergence:
1. **Utopia Becomes Reality (Probability 30%)**: The mainnet operates with zero failures, the exchange's daily trading volume exceeds 1 billion USD, Pi coin stabilizes at 5 USD, becoming a global inclusive financial tool;
2. **Moderate Growth (Probability 50%)**: Technology is stable but applications are mediocre, Pi coin fluctuates between $0.5 and $2, becoming a regional payment tool;
3. **Bubble Burst (Probability 20%)**: The mainnet crashes or faces regulatory strikes, causing the token to plummet below $0.1, triggering a global trust crisis in "zero-cost Mining".
Regardless of the outcome, the essence of Pi Network is a social experiment about "the democratization of blockchain." It attempts to answer two major propositions:
- **Is a technical barrier necessary?** If 50 million non-technical users can build a prosperous ecosystem, the mass adoption of Web3 may accelerate;
- **Must value stem from scarcity?** If zero-cost Mining Pi coin is recognized by the market, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" may face challenges.
The Interweaving of Idealism and Greed:
The six-year journey of Pi Network is not only an attempt at technological innovation but also a game of human nature and capital. Its success or failure is not only related to the token price but will also reshape people's perception of the "democratization" of blockchain. If the team can restrain greed and focus on ecological construction, Pi may have the opportunity to become the "people's currency" in the encryption world; if it becomes a tool manipulated by capital, this experiment will ultimately become a footnote to the burst of a bubble.