Market Observation and Outlook: Policy Variations Affect Financial Trends, Bitcoin May Welcome a Rise in July

Market Observation

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a complex crossroads. Chairman Powell stated that if it weren't for the tariff plans potentially undermining inflation control results, the Fed might have already cut interest rates. Although the July interest rate decision left all possibilities open, the statements suggest that policy flexibility is increasing, and if employment data weakens in the future, the threshold for rate cuts may be lowered. Meanwhile, the U.S. government's fiscal policy adds new variables, as the "Too Big to Fail" tax and spending bill passed the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. This bill has far-reaching implications, planning to cut taxes, reduce social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. In trade, the attitude is tough, clearly stating that it will not postpone the tariff deadline of July 9, and specifically targeting Japan as a pressure point, intensifying global market tensions. Notably, due to the Independence Day holiday, U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4, and will remain closed all day on July 4, as the market enters a brief silence period before the policy storm.

Hong Kong welcomes the 28th anniversary of its return, with the first licensed virtual asset exchange's offline experience booth officially unveiled at the West Kowloon High-Speed Railway Station, providing the public with convenient service channels and experiences. An analyst stated that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as an important node for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of improved on-chain efficiency and the accelerated trend of digital asset institutionalization, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning. An analyst from a trading platform pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening for the first time, possibly entering a consolidation phase or a local top. At the same time, the decline in spot trading volume and an increase in profit-taking behavior have made the cost price of short-term holders at $98,700 a key support. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually performs poorly in the third quarter, with an average return of 6%. Price volatility is expected to further decrease in the future, and the trend may continue in a range-bound fluctuation. Statistics indicate that in the past decade, Bitcoin recorded increases in seven Julys, with an average rise of 9.1%, and historical data supports the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 mark. However, relatively pessimistic analysts warn that a real sell-off has not yet begun. He predicts that the price of Bitcoin may fall below $100,000 to the range of $92,000-$93,000, and if further declines occur, it may reach a potential bottom of $60,000-$70,000. He also noted that if this trend materializes, altcoins may face a further decline risk of 50%-80%.

The on-chain market has remained relatively cold recently, with no popular fast-moving trades appearing, although some token prices have hit all-time highs. However, the recent surge in stocks being linked to the blockchain has brought some highlights. A certain company's stock price reached an all-time high yesterday, touching $99.18, which also revived Meme coins on the Solana chain, with the market cap skyrocketing from $14,000 to $4.4 million in nearly three days, rising 1400% within 24 hours.

Key Data (As of July 2, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,465 (Year-to-date +13.8%), Daily spot trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 (Year-to-date -26.88%), daily spot trading volume is $14.38 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 63 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB ETH: 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1186
• Sector fluctuations: AI sector down 4.48%; RWA sector down 4.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $256 million, including $77.6394 million in BTC liquidations, $56.1918 million in ETH liquidations, and $13.8666 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Line (107151.13 USD), Lower Line (105029.32 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2467.39 USD), lower line (2418.53 USD)

ETF Flows (as of July 1)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million (15 consecutive days of net inflow ended)
• Ethereum ETF: +$40.6798 million (net inflow for 3 days)

Today's Outlook

Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3 (i.e., at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4); it will be closed all day on July 4.

• A trading platform will launch Echo Protocol on July 2, (ECHO)
• A certain platform has launched Wormhole (W)
• The Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• A trading platform will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd on July 4th at 4 PM.
• US June ADP employment numbers ( million ): Previous value 3.7, expected 9.5 (July 2, 20:15)
• US June unemployment rate: previous value 4.2%, expected 4.3% (July 3, 20:30)
• The U.S. June adjusted non-farm payroll employment population is ( million ): previous value 13.9, expected 11 (July 3, 20:30)
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2nd, accounting for 0.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 10.7 million USD.

Top 500 market cap largest rises today: Humanity Protocol (H) rise 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) rise 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) rise 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) rise 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) rise 16.68%.

Hot News

1. Publicly traded cannabis companies establish subsidiaries to create a DOGE treasury and related business.
2. A trading platform will launch CROSS(CROSS)
3. London-listed company Anemoi has increased its Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to approximately 40%
4. Analysis: The average rise of Bitcoin in July was 9.1%, and it may challenge the 116,000 USD mark in the coming weeks.
5. Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Bought another BTC, believing that Bitcoin will one day reach 1 million dollars.
6. Leading Medicine Biotechnology plans to acquire all shares of Conflux to expand in the blockchain field.
7. Japanese game company CyberStep plans to invest 1 billion yen to enter the cryptocurrency investment.
8. An analysis from a trading platform: BTC usually performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%.
9. Nasdaq-listed companies have cumulatively purchased $5 million worth of HYPE, SOL, and SUI.
10. The MOVE Foundation reserve wallet received 45 million $MOVE from a trading platform, currently holding 168 million coins.
11. Trusta.AI announced the $TA token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
12. A family-related cryptocurrency project raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
13. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September and to lower them three times in a row.
14. The Katana mainnet is officially launched, and a 1 billion KAT token incentive program has been initiated.
15. Circle applies for a U.S. banking license to custody USDC reserves
16. A certain trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the European Union.
17. U.S. Treasury Secretary: Legislation on stablecoins may be completed by mid-July
18. BitMine announces a private placement of $250 million and launches an Ethereum financial strategy.
19. JPMorgan gives Circle a "downgrade" rating, setting the target price at $80 by the end of 2026.