Delphi 2025 Crypto Market Outlook Highlights Summary

Author: Stacy Muur, Web3 researcher; Translator: Golden Finance xiaozou

I have always been very concerned about the research reports published by some of the smartest Web3 teams. Their articles provide food for thought, show different perspectives, and help you become more confident in the views you identify with.

The research article includes professional opinions that can help you better understand different perspectives on the Web3 field. Now let's take a look at the summary of Delphi team's '2025 Cryptocurrency Market Outlook'.

1. Long live Bitcoin

Not long ago, many people thought that a $100,000 Bitcoin was just a daydream.

Now, this sentiment has undergone a huge change. The market value of Bitcoin is about $2 trillion, which is truly amazing. If Bitcoin were a publicly traded company, it would be the sixth most valuable company in the world.

! [11ujZTYZMrCCCz1ev7yID9eVrFK79HcNqIop8UJF.png] (https://img.jinse.cn/7336119_watermarknone.png "7336119")

Bitcoin has already attracted a lot of attention, but there is still considerable room for growth.

• The market value of Bitcoin is only 11% of the total market value of the seven major US technology giants (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, META, Tesla).
• It is less than 3% of the total market value of US stocks and about 1.5% of the total market value of global stocks.
• Its total market value accounts for only 5% of the outstanding public debt in the United States, less than 0.7% of the global debt (public debt + private debt).
• U.S. money market funds are three times the size of Bitcoin's market cap.
• Bitcoin's market capitalization accounts for only about 15% of the world's total foreign exchange reserve assets. Let's assume that if global central banks reallocate 5% of their respective gold reserves to Bitcoin, it will add more than $150 billion in purchasing power – three times the total net flow into IBIT this year.
• Household net worth reached an all-time high of more than $160 trillion, $40 trillion above the pre-pandemic peak. This growth is largely driven by rising house prices and a booming stock market, which is 80 times higher than Bitcoin's current market capitalization.

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In a world where the Federal Reserve and other central banks cause the national currency to depreciate by 5-7% annually, investors need to target an annual return of 10-15% to compensate for the resulting loss of purchasing power in the future.

So you get the idea:

• At a rate of depreciation of 5% per year, the real value of the currency will fall by half after 14 years.
• Calculated at an annual depreciation rate of 7%, the real value of the currency will decrease by half in 10 years.

This is why Bitcoin and other high-growth industries have garnered so much attention and traction.

2, altcoin disillusionment

While Bitcoin has hit all-time highs again and again this year, 2024 has not been a very successful year for most altcoins.

• ETH did not reach its all-time high.
• SOL hit another all-time high, but it was only a few dollars above its previous high, which is somewhat insignificant compared to the growth in market capitalization and network activity.
• ARB performed strongly at the beginning of the year, but began to perform poorly at the end of the year.

! [ZnLP4uXcm9eZGNto9XUf2Hgt7vATx6gZB8yMM8UR.png] (https://img.jinse.cn/7336121_watermarknone.png "7336121")

There are many more such examples. Just take a look at the data on 90% of the altcoins in your portfolio and you'll see it at a glance.

What is the specific reason?

The first reason is the dominance of Bitcoin. Fueled by ETF flows and Trump support, Bitcoin has had an extraordinary year, resulting in year-to-date prices rising by more than 130% and elevating its dominance to a three-year high.

The second reason is that the market is fragmented. **

Market fragmentation this year is a new phenomenon in the crypto market. In previous market cycles, there was a tendency to trade in tandem. When BTC rises by 1%, ETH typically rises by 2% and altcoins rise by 3%, with predictable patterns. However, this cycle is different.

There is a small portion of cryptocurrencies that have performed exceptionally well, but there are also large areas of red.

The rising wave of Bitcoin has not benefited everyone, and the classic "Path to Altseason" that many have been waiting for has not materialized.

Another equally important reason is Meme Coin (and recently AI Agents).

Cryptocurrencies have been oscillating between "pure Ponzi schemes" and "world-changing technologies." In 2024, the former dominates the discourse.

! [8gMABMcmMjqOgXDf4kgwaUnv9aFiHyoL4HMRmuop.png] (https://img.jinse.cn/7336123_watermarknone.png "7336123")

The meme coin super cycle has amplified the notion that cryptocurrencies are just a huge Ponzi scheme. People are starting to question whether fundamentals really matter and if cryptocurrencies are just a 'casino on Mars' - these concerns are valid.

On this point, I would like to elaborate.

When Memecoin is labeled as the best performing performer of the year, only those with the largest meme coins are taken into account – those that have created significant market caps and built communities. People often overlook the fact that 95% of the meme coins issued fail to hold their value, but people are "willing to believe it".

With this belief, many people who previously invested in altcoins turned to buy Meme coins - some succeeded, but most failed. Therefore, capital flows are mainly distributed between Bitcoin (institutional capital) and Meme coins (high risk), squeezing most altcoins to the side.

Delphi believes that there will be a shift towards technology that will 'change the world' by 2025.

Personally, I am not very optimistic. In 2024, many key opinion leaders (KOL) focused on Meme coins emerged. For example, I created a Telegram folder with some truly valuable channels, and it was very difficult to find a channel that did not focus on 'ape calls'. This is a game of attention, and the widely discussed narrative will seriously affect market trends.

**3. What's next? **

(1) Stablecoin Growth and Credit Expansion

A major obstacle facing the market is the oversupply of tokens. The market is faced with a large number of private investments and new assets for public token offerings. For example, in 2024 alone, more than 4 million tokens will be issued on Solana's pump.fun. At the same time, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown only 3 times since the last cycle, compared to 18 times in 2017 and 10 times in 2020.

Missing elements - stablecoin growth and credit expansion - are starting to reappear. Lower interest rates and more friendly regulation are expected to stimulate speculative behavior and address these imbalances. As stablecoins regain traction, their role in trading and collateralization will be crucial for market recovery.

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(2) Institutional Capital Inflow

Until last year, institutional capital was still very hesitant about participating in cryptocurrencies due to regulatory uncertainty. However, with the reluctant approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, this situation has started to change, paving the way for future institutional investments.

These institutional investors look for investment opportunities that they are familiar with. While some investors may dabble in Meme coins, they are more likely to be more interested in assets in areas such as ETH/SOL, DeFi, or infrastructure.

Delphi expects the coming year to be similar to the "across-line rally" phenomenon of previous cycles. This time, projects based on basic principles or core objectives will regain traction. These may include assets such as OG DeFi, which have a proven track record of performance. They could also be infrastructure assets, similar to the L1 transactions we observed earlier. Others may include RWAs (real-world assets) or emerging areas such as artificial intelligence or DePIN.

Not every cryptocurrency will rise triple digits like before, but Meme coin will continue to exist. This may signal a new beginning and widespread crypto surge.

Note: In general, most institutional traders heavily rely on options hedging. Therefore, if there is a 'rally across the board', the assets most likely to attract investor interest are those with options, which can be primarily traded on Deribit or Aevo.

(3) Dominant position of Solana

Solana demonstrated the resilience of the blockchain ecosystem. After experiencing a 96% crash during the FTX collapse, Solana saw an amazing rebound in 2024.

! [FZO7NUTQXpKxDqpYm4wfbLJNWE6HsNcgV9EeuieJ.png] (https://img.jinse.cn/7336126_watermarknone.png "7336126")

Main highlights include:

• Developer Momentum: Solana's hackathons and airdrops (such as Jito airdrop) have rekindled the enthusiasm of developers and users, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and adoption.
• Market Dominance: From Meme coins to artificial intelligence applications, Solana has dominated the 2024 trends. It is worth noting that its actual economic value (REV) - a measure of transaction fees and MEV - exceeds that of Ethereum by over 200%.
• Future Outlook: Solana is expected to challenge Ethereum's dominant position in scalability and user experience. Its seamless user experience and centralized ecosystem provide significant advantages over decentralized L2 solutions.

4. Final Thoughts

For many people, the current market situation may remind them of 2017-2018, when Bitcoin reached a peak of $20,000 before the new year and started to decline shortly after the arrival of 2018. However, in my opinion, comparing the cryptocurrency market in 2018 with the market in 2025 is irrelevant. These are two completely different environments.

It is important to recognize that the broad cryptocurrency market extends far beyond the timeline of CT and X. People outside of these platforms have very different views on the market.

In 2025, I expect the crypto market to be divided into two main verticals:

• Web3 Natives: Refers to traders who are deeply rooted in the crypto market. They have a detailed understanding of the unique features of Bitcoin and are willing to participate in high-risk trades, including meme coins, AI agents, and pre-sales - elements that evoke the Wild West.
• Regular Investors: The risk management methods of institutional investors and retail investors are often different. They typically adhere to more fundamental investment and trading strategies - treating cryptocurrencies as alternatives to the stock market.

Which vertical will be marginalized? Those early-stage DeFi, RWA, and DePIN protocols that cannot ensure a leading position in the niche market or at least on the chain. That's just my opinion.